Global Market Highlight
In February 2025, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index saw a sharp decline, falling to 98.3 from 105.3 in January, marking the largest monthly drop since August 2021. Meanwhile, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 2.3 million barrels between the weeks ending February 14 and February 21. The housing market also showed signs of strain, as sales of new single-family homes dropped 10.5% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 units, a larger decline than expected due to persistently high mortgage rates and adverse winter weather.
However, U.S. durable goods orders rebounded strongly, rising 3.1% month-over-month, surpassing the forecast of 2.0% and recovering from the previous month’s decline of -1.8%. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024, aligning with expectations but slowing from the prior quarter’s 3.1% expansion. Labor market data indicated potential softness, with initial jobless claims rising to 242,000 for the week ending February 22, the highest level since early October 2024, though the unemployment rate remained steady at 4%. Inflation trends showed some moderation, as the Core PCE Price Index increased by 2.6% year-over-year in January, down from 2.9% in the previous month. Lastly, the Chicago PMI improved to 45.5 in February from 39.5 in January, signaling a slowdown in contraction but extending the region’s business activity decline for the 15th consecutive month.
Ethereum Exchange Reserves Drop to 19.2M, Hinting Bullish Sentiment
Ethereum exchange reserves have fallen to 19,204,697 ETH, the lowest in years, according to CryptoQuant. The decline signals that investors are moving ETH off exchanges, reducing potential sell pressure and indicating long-term confidence. Despite ETH's recent dip to $2,100, the shrinking supply could trigger upward price momentum, especially with rising institutional interest and the anticipation of an Ethereum ETF.
BTC Technical Analysis
From February 26 to March 5, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced notable volatility, maintaining a clear downtrend as it broke through key support levels with strong bearish momentum. On February 28, BTC saw a sharp drop to $78,258, likely triggering a liquidity grab. However, buyers stepped in aggressively at lower levels, leading to a strong rebound. By March 5, BTC had recovered to around $87,000 but remained below $93,227, indicating that the overall downtrend was still intact.
The significant outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, especially on February 25 with over $1 billion in withdrawals, indicates strong selling pressure. This aligns with BTC’s price drop to $78,258 on February 28 before rebounding to $87,000 by March 5. If outflows continue, selling pressure could intensify, hindering price recovery. Conversely, rising inflows could signal renewed buying interest and drive BTC’s price higher.
ETH Technical Analysis
From February 26 to March 5, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) faced strong selling pressure, dropping to a low of $2,076 before rebounding. The price recovered toward the $2,500 resistance but is struggling to break above it. A failure could lead to another retest of lower support, while a breakout may push ETH higher. As long as ETH stays within the purple trendline and the $2,122–$2,175 support zone (grey area), it could be a buying opportunity.
The chart shows large Ethereum ETF outflows from mid-February to early March, with the biggest at -$94.3 million on February 26. This selling pressure likely contributed to ETH’s price drop to around $2,076. However, as outflows slowed, ETH rebounded, and by March 4, there was a small inflow of $14.6 million, suggesting renewed investor confidence. If inflows continue, ETH could push higher, but persistent outflows may keep it below resistance and lead to another decline.
SOL Technical Analysis
From February 26 to March 5, 2025, Solana (SOL) rebounded strongly after hitting a low of $125.55. The price had been in a downtrend but found support in the green-highlighted zone. The previous support area at $170–$175 has now turned into resistance (yellow zone). On March 2, SOL tested this resistance but struggled to break above it, indicating selling pressure. If SOL fails to reclaim this zone, a pullback toward lower support levels is possible. However, a breakout above the resistance could signal continued upward momentum.
The number of new Solana addresses surged from September 2024, peaking at over 170M in November, before gradually declining. A sharp drop occurred in February and early March 2025. This may indicate waning user interest due to lower project activity or market conditions. However, if past trends repeat, an accumulation phase could precede another surge. Monitoring transaction volume, DeFi, NFTs, and memecoins is key.
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