Global Market Highlight
Recent economic indicators reflect a mixed outlook for the global market. The Chicago PMI rose slightly to 46.6 in September, indicating modest improvement but continued contraction in manufacturing. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 47.3, marking the third month of contraction, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI remained steady at 47.2, highlighting ongoing challenges. On a positive note, the ISM Manufacturing Prices index fell to 48.3, suggesting reduced inflationary pressures on manufacturing inputs.
In the labor market, JOLTs Job Openings increased to 8.0 million in August, indicating strong demand. The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report for September showed the private sector added 143,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 124,000, with annual pay rising 4.7% year-over-year. On October 2, 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprising 3.9 million barrel increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, reaching 416.9 million barrels, contrary to analysts' predictions of a drawdown due to lower refinery utilization and weakening fuel demand.
On October 3, 2024, initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 225,000 for the week ending September 28, slightly above the expected 220,000 claims, but still indicating a stable labor market. The S&P Global US Services PMI was revised down to 55.2 in September from 55.4, reflecting a slight decline but still showing strong growth. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI surged to 54.9, up from 51.5 in August, significantly exceeding the forecast of 51.7, marking the strongest growth in the services sector since February 2023. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices index increased to 59.4, driven by rising wage costs and supply chain issues.
Average Hourly Earnings for U.S. private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.4% in September, consistent with August, bringing the average to $35.21. Overall, the U.S. economy added 254,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, well above the expected 150,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% from 4.2%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 4% year-over-year.
BTC Technical Analysis
As mentioned last week, BTC was susceptible to a brief correction toward $62,200-$62,600, and it indeed dropped to $60,600. However, the dip was short-lived, lasting only four days. By Sunday, BTC had rebounded to the $62,200 range and is now forming a potential reversal pattern, as long as it maintains support at $62,200-$62,600, with an upside target of $65,000.
Between September 30 and October 4, Bitcoin ETF flows experienced significant volatility. On September 30, there was an inflow of $61.3 million into Bitcoin ETFs, but this was followed by substantial outflows: $242.6 million on October 1, $64.4 million on October 2, and $54.2 million on October 3. The trend reversed on October 4, with a smaller inflow of $25.6 million. This pattern reflects fluctuating investor sentiment during the period.
ETH Technical Analysis
In last week's report, we highlighted the potential for ETH to correct toward $2,500, but it dipped further, reaching a low of $2,350. ETH is now trading at $2,478, still below the $2,500 resistance level. For a confirmed reversal, ETH needs to stay above $2,500.
Between September 30 and October 4, the Ethereum ETF saw fluctuating capital flows. On September 30, there was a modest outflow of $0.8 million, but this surged to $48.6 million on October 1. The trend reversed on October 2 with an inflow of $19.8 million, signaling renewed interest. The volatility persisted with a $3.2 million outflow on October 3, followed by a $7.4 million inflow on October 4, marking a highly variable week for the Ethereum ETF.
SOL Technical Analysis
As mentioned in our previous report, there was a possibility of Solana dropping to the $140-$143 range, and it did correct, but its lowest point reached the strong support area at $137. Solana is now trading at $147, with a target increase to $158.
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