Global Market Highlight
On Thursday, December 19, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, setting the target range at 4.25% to 4.5%. This marks the third rate cut of 2024, designed to bolster economic growth while managing inflation. However, the Fed signaled a cautious approach for 2025, reducing its projected rate cuts from four to two due to persistent inflation, which remains above the 2% target, and a stable unemployment rate.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its interest rate at 0.25% on the same day, focusing on stability amid global economic uncertainties. The decision, supported by an 8-1 vote, faced opposition from Naoki Tamura, who advocated for a hike to 0.5% to address inflation risks. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed the need for more data on wage growth and U.S. policy impacts before considering changes. Following the announcement, the yen dropped to a one-month low against the dollar. Markets are now watching for potential policy shifts in January 2025.
In the U.S., the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.1% in the third quarter of 2024, an upward revision driven by strong consumer spending and export growth. Consumer spending rose 3.7%, its fastest pace since early 2023, while exports surged by 9.6%. Despite high interest rates, GDP has consistently exceeded 2% in eight of the last nine quarters. The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, reflecting steady economic performance.
In November 2024, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in October, indicating a cooling inflation environment. Annually, the PCE price index increased by 2.4%, slightly up from October’s 2.3%. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index also rose by 0.1% following a 0.3% gain in October, maintaining a 2.8% annual rise.
BTC Technical Analysis
Since December 16, the Bitcoin price action has demonstrated a corrective phase following its strong rally earlier in the month. The chart reflects a bearish trend characterized by lower highs and lower lows, indicating a gradual decline in momentum. A key support level can be identified around $93,227.94, where the price recently tested and showed a minor rebound, suggesting some buyer interest. On the other hand, resistance is evident near $99,000, which aligns with a previous consolidation zone.
If the price manages to hold above the $93,227.94 support and breaks above the $99,000 resistance, it could resume its upward trajectory, potentially aiming for the previous peak near $108,000. Conversely, a breakdown below $93,227.94 could trigger further declines, with the next potential support around $86,000.
ETH Technical Analysis
Since December 16, Ethereum's price has been in a correction after a previous rally. The trend shows lower highs and lower lows, signaling bearish momentum. The $3,334 support level has been tested multiple times, highlighting its importance for buyers, but selling pressure remains strong.
Resistance near $3,600 is blocking upward movement and aligns with a previous consolidation phase. If Ethereum breaks above this, it could aim for the next resistance around $4,100. Currently, the price is consolidating around $3,334 with weak recovery attempts. A break below this level could push the price to $3.000 or $3,100. Conversely, a rebound above $3,600 could revive bullish momentum. Traders are closely watching these key levels to gauge the next move.
SOL Technical Analysis
Since December 16, Solana (SOL) has been in a bearish trend after a market correction. The price has dropped from its highs and is now consolidating near the $183 support, a key level with historical buyer interest. However, a lack of strong rebound shows market caution.
The price continues to form lower highs and lows, indicating ongoing selling pressure. Resistance is near $200, where prior rejections occurred. A breakout above $200 could signal a bullish recovery toward $251, while a drop below $183 may push the price down to the next support at $170. Traders should watch for a breakout above $200 to attract buyers or a breakdown below $183 for further declines.
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