Global Market Highlight
In January 2025, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 from 49.4 in December, signaling growth after seven months of contraction. This increase was driven by higher output and new orders, with business confidence reaching a 34-month high. Similarly, the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9% from 49.2%, indicating a return to expansion. The ISM Prices Index also rose to 54.9% from 52.5%, reflecting higher raw material costs.
The labor market showed mixed signals. In December 2024, U.S. job openings fell by 556,000 to 7.6 million, marking the biggest decline in 14 months. However, the labor market remained stable with steady hiring and low layoffs. The ADP National Employment Report for January 2025 showed 183,000 nonfarm private jobs were added, surpassing the expected 148,000, driven by consumer-facing industries. The Nonfarm Payrolls report, however, showed a lower-than-expected increase of 143,000 jobs, compared to a forecast of 169,000, though the unemployment rate declined to 4% from 4.1%. Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 1, 2025, rose to 219,000, exceeding both the previous week's 208,000 and the forecast of 214,000.
In the services sector, the S&P Global Services PMI for January 2025 dropped to 52.9 from 56.8, marking its lowest level since early 2024. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also declined to 52.8, below the forecast of 54.2, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace. The crude oil market saw a significant increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, which rose by 8.664 million barrels for the week ending January 31, 2025, far exceeding the forecasted 2.4 million barrels. This large buildup contributed to a more than 2% decline in oil prices, alongside concerns over a potential China-U.S. trade war and weaker demand.
BTC Technical Analysis
Since February 3, 2025, Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has been in a consolidation phase after experiencing a pullback from its recent high of $109,588. Currently trading at $97,541.92, the price action suggests that BTC is testing key support and resistance levels. The support at $93,227.94 has held well, indicating potential buying interest in this zone. However, resistance around $99,000 remains a challenge, as sellers have been active near these levels.
The short-term trend shows a sideways movement following the recent downtrend, while the medium-term structure still maintains a higher-high and higher-low formation, keeping the overall market sentiment cautiously bullish. If BTC manages to hold above $97,000, a bullish breakout toward $100,000 and possibly $105,000 could occur. Conversely, if BTC loses momentum and falls below $95,000, further declines toward $93,000 or even $90,000 might follow.
In the coming days, traders should closely monitor BTC’s ability to reclaim $100,000 or whether it succumbs to selling pressure. If bullish momentum strengthens, the uptrend could resume, but failure to sustain above critical levels may invite more downside risk. The next few trading sessions will be crucial in determining BTC’s direction.
ETH Technical Analysis
On February 3, Ethereum experienced a significant correction, dropping to a low of $2,125 and testing its strong support area around $2,130-$2,170. However, it quickly rebounded and managed to close at $2,879, recording a 0.36% gain. Currently, Ethereum is trading at $2,647.34, with a key support zone around $2,502.24. This suggests Ethereum is in a corrective phase after its high, struggling to regain bullish momentum.
Ethereum is currently testing support at $2,502, and if this level holds, a bounce toward $2,700 could be possible. However, any breakdown below $2,500 would likely lead to further declines toward the $2,170 support area. On the upper side, Ethereum faces resistance near $2,865 and again at $3,060, both of which will act as significant hurdles if price tries to push upward.
The price action suggests that Ethereum is in a bearish-to-neutral zone, and future movements will depend on its ability to either break above key resistance levels or sustain above the support areas. Short-term traders should be cautious of a potential further retracement, while a solid bounce from the support zone could signal a potential buying opportunity.
SOL Technical Analysis
On February 3, Solana also experienced a correction, similar to Ethereum and Bitcoin. However, Solana's correction was relatively close to its nearest support area at $181-$184 before eventually rebounding. Currently, it is trading at $204.62, with the price encountering significant resistance around the $250-$255 level and struggling to maintain bullish momentum. There is a notable support zone around $183.
The price has recently tested the support near $183 and is currently attempting to recover toward $208. If Solana holds above $200, there is a possibility of a short-term rebound, targeting the resistance at $220, and possibly testing $250 if the bulls take control. On the other hand, a break below $200 would likely see the price drop to test the $181-$183 support zone again.
Overall, the market structure suggests a bearish-to-neutral sentiment. The key level to watch for the next move is $204. A successful break above $220 could trigger further upside, while a failure to maintain above $200 could open the door for further downside risks toward $181-$183.
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